Liepos viduryje “Kauno dienos” žurnalistas Julijanas Gališanskis paklausė maždaug taip: “ar Rusijai pavyko teismais ir naujais įstatymais numalšinti protesto judėjimą, ar dabar matome tik laikiną štilį, o galbūt atvirkščiai – griežtos valdžios priemonės tik dar labiau kurstys visuomenės pasipriešinimą?”
Klausimą mintyse persiformulavau į kiek kitokį – kokios opozicijos Rusijoje perspektyos? Parašiau štai ką:
Kelis mėnesius vykstantis teismo procesas prieš Aleksėjų Navalną neabejotinai rodo, kad šis erzina Rusijos valdžią. Sąmoningai provokatyvus ir kategoriškas, pastaruoju metu įsitvirtinantis kaip vienas aiškiausių opozicijos lyderių ir veidų, Navalnas pavasarį pareiškė, jog ketina dalyvauti prezidento rinkimuose, ir visiškai neseniai buvo užregistruotas Maskvos mero rinkimuose. Jis yra vienas aktyviausių opozicionierių, kurio štabas išmaniai išnaudoja Rusijos valdžios tiesmukus veiksmus kovojant su juo. Jo teismas susilaukė daug viešumo, baigiamoji kalba teisme internete peržiūrėta daugybę kartų, vaizdai su policijos bandymu jį sulaikyti irgi pasklido plačiai ir pagal paskutines apklausas mažiau nei ketvirtadalis mano, jog kaltinimai jam yra pagrįsti. Tad labai tikėtina, jog teismo procesas jį pavers arba kankiniu, arba herojumi. Ir taip tik sustiprins jo pozicijas.
Tačiau ar šis procesas ir jo veikla kaip nors pagelbės Rusijos opoziciniam judėjimui ir galėtų prisidėti prie politinių permainų? Pirmiausia būtina suvokti, kad artimiausiu metu sunku tikėtis tokių intensyvių protestų, kokie vyko 2012 m. pirmąjį pusmetį. Opozicija ir protestų organizatoriai natūraliai turėjo pereiti į kitokią stadiją: tapti organizuotesne, labiau koordinuota, dirbti daugiau nematomo mobilizuojančio darbo ir pagaliau turėti kokį aiškesnį tikslą nei nuversti Putiną. Rusijos sąlygomis tai nėra lengva užduotis ir opozicija nėra tokia vieninga bei efektyvi kaip norėtųsi. Jai, žinoma, kliudo ir pati Rusijos valdžia, pradėjusi teismus prieš protestuotojus, sugriežtinusi teisinę bazę. Kiek rezultatyvūs šie veiksmai suprasime galbūt artėjant tik kitiems rinkimams. Navalno teismo atveju, matyti, kad buvo persistengta ir itin tiesmukai pademonstruotas noras juo atsikratyti. Tad simbolinė pergalė pasiekta. Tačiau pats didžiausias ir kol kas neatsakytas klausimas yra – ar šias pergales mato tik atidūs ir suinteresuoti stebėtojai, ar šios žinios nukeliauja toliau į pasyvią, nors ir nepatenkintą gyventojų dalį ir stiprina jos nepasitenkinimą valdžia. Kol kas panašu, kad audra vyksta tik stiklinėje.
Internetinio įrodymo neturiu, tikiu, kad tokia žinutė ir pasirodė.
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