Kodėl klysta naujojo Šaltojo karo pranašai

Prieš trylika metų, 2001 m. rugsėjį, nemaža dalis pasaulio patyrė bene ryškiausią šoką po Šaltojo karo pabaigos. Griūvantys du dangoraižiai mums pranešė, kad istorija nesibaigė ir kad liberalios demokratijos triumfo ir liberaliosios pasaulio tvarkos dar teks palaukti. Paskui įsivėlus į keletą naujų karų tik dar kartą galima buvo įsitikinti, kad vizijos apie naująją pasaulio tvarką priešininkų yra daugiau nei pakankamai. Nepaisant to tikėjimas, jog vis dėlto gyvename naujoje eroje buvo tvirtas.

Bandymų įvardinti naująjį laiką netrūko, tačiau šiuo metu triumfuoja vienas – naujasis Šaltasis karas. Vėl pradedamos matyti senos įtampos, kai pasaulis buvo pasidalijęs į dvi priešiškas stovyklas, kai Rusija vis labiau save priešpastato Vakarams ir atvirai bando nustatyti savo įtakos sferą. Šaltojo karo (kad ir naujojo) analogija leidžia labai greitai ir paprastai paaiškinti, kas gi čia vyksta – tai, kas yra jau matyta, girdėta ir pažįstama, ar iš atminties, ar iš istorijos vadovėlių. Tik šįkart džiaugiamės, kad esame kitoje uždangos pusėje.

Pažįstamos analogijos suteikia aiškumą – nurodo aiškią priežastį, kaltininką (Putino režimą) ir sprendimo būdą (atsiribojimas, o dar geriau – siena). Tačiau tas aiškumas lygiai taip pat gali būti ir iliuzija, bėgimas nuo daug sudėtingesnio politikos pasaulio, kur ne visada pašalinus tiesioginį pavojaus šaltinį yra išsprendžiama problema.

Ne, tai ne naujasis Šaltasis karas: čia nevyksta nauja ideologijų kova, čia pasaulis naujai neskyla į pirmą, antrą ar trečią, ir apskritai nieko ypatingai nauja mes čia negalime pamatyti. O negalime dėl to, kad situacija, kuri dabar susiklostė Ukrainoje ir Kryme, yra puikus įrodymas to, kaip netinkamai baigėsi Šaltasis karas. Jis baigėsi be „taikos sutarties“, triumfuojant, tačiau ne iki galo apsisprendus, ką daryti su jo palikimu. Krymas dabar tampa simboliu, svarbiausiu įvykiu po Šaltojo karo, parodžiusiu, kaip sunku užbaigti bet kokius karus.

Pirmasis palikimas, žinoma, Rusija, kurios didžiausia bėda yra ji pati. Rusija su skaudžiomis ekonominėmis ir socialinėmis pasekmėmis išgyveno devyniasdešimtuosius. Ir per tą laiką, o ir vėliau jos lyderiai taip ir nesugebėjo surasti jokios kitos tvirtesnės atramos savo valstybės pasididžiavimui nei pergalę Antrajame pasauliniame kare ir sovietmečio pasiekimus, kuriuos sunaikino didžioji geopolitinė katastrofa. Ir, žinoma, nuolatos prisiminti priešus Vakaruose, nuolat spaudžiančius ir supančius jų šalį.

Tai šalis, kurioje taip ir nesuprasta, kad sienos susitraukė ir kad pasaulis pasikeitė, kad sovietiniai žemėlapiai nebetinkami suprasti, kaip kinta pasaulis. Ir kad didžiosios valstybės statuso (bei taip trokštamos pagarbos) ne reikalauji, o jį užsitarnauji.

Tačiau Šaltojo karo nepabaigė ir Vakarai. Šioje erdvėje visiems buvo aiškus nugalėtojas, o nugalėtojams visada tinka „pokario“ status quo. Tarptautinė sistema atrodo stabili, tokia, kokia turi būti (be keleto nesisteminių veikėjų), o įvykę pokyčiai nekelia abejonių, nes praradimų nepatirta ir nepasitenkinimą jausti nėra dėl ko.

Pergalė, žinoma, neturėjo reikšti, kad kažkaip itin švelniai reikėjo apsieiti su Rusija. Be to, dar puikiai prisimename, kad „terapijos“ bandymų būta, ir itin brangių. 1990-ųjų pradžioje JAV ir Vokietija už reformas buvo davusi tiek paskolų, kad jos sudarė beveik pusę Rusijos BVP. Tad nesėkmė ne čia.

Nesėkmė ar nenoras buvo kitur – nereformuotose ir tebeegzistuojančiose Šaltojo karo institucinėse struktūrose. Ir visų pirma – Jungtinių tautų Saugumo taryboje, institucijoje, turinčioje rūpintis pasaulio taika ir stabilumu, tačiau sukurtoje pagal didžiųjų valstybių norus ir dėl jų nepasitikėjimo viena kita. Penkių valstybių veto teisė Jungtines tautas padarė neveiksnia kolektyvinio saugumo organizacija Šaltojo karo metais, ji tik pusiau veiksni dėl to yra ir dabar.

Ji sukurta taip, kad bet kokia jos reforma yra neįmanoma ir nebus padaryta iš vidaus. Ji negali priversi Rusijos elgtis pagal šiuolaikines normas (kaip negali, būkime sąžiningi, tai padaryti Kinija ar JAV). Jokia institucija, sukurta pagal tokią logiką, negalėtų. Kaip negali priversti viena kitos keistis ir didžiosios valstybės. Pasaulio politikos pokytis įmanomas tik institucijose, bet kitokiose, kuriose yra siekiama susitarimų.

Žinoma, tarp šitų dviejų polių atsiduriame mes. Turbūt mažai kam Lietuvoje reikia įrodinėti, jog mes nebaigėme savo Šaltojo karo, ir vis dar gyvename su gausybe baimių ir baubų. Ir Rusija čia tik vienas iš jų, paprastas, nes lengvai identifikuojamas ir aiškus, kiti, deja, reikalaujantys daug daugiau diskomforto ir atvirumo sau patiems. Mes tik džiaugiamės (ir pagrįstai) laimėję šioje karų loterijoje, retai išlįsdami toliau savo istorinių nuoskaudų ir susimąstydami, ogi kokio pasaulio mes iš tiesų norėtumėme. Ir ką mes galėtumėme padaryti dėl jo.

Nes Šaltasis karas taip ir nebuvo pabaigtas.

Komentaras pirmą kartą pasirodė Delfiuose.

Paskui buvo išverstas į anglų kalbą Baltic Scholars for Ukraine tinklaraštyje

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