Ar kas bijo Aleksėjaus Navalno?

Mano atsakymai į keletą klausimų apie Aleksėjų Navalną “Vilniaus dienai” (rugpj. 17 d.). Veikėjas, kuriam dar teks skirti gerokai daugiau dėmesio.

A. Navalnas, atrodo populiarus Rusijoje. Ar dėl to, kad akcentuoja nacionalizmą ir kovą prieš korupciją, kas daugeliui rusų – "prie širdies"?

Kol kas neskubėčiau kalbėti apie Aleksėjaus Navalno populiarumą visoje Rusijoje. Po nuosprendžio jo byloje Levados centro padaryta apklausa rodė, kad jo bylą atidžiai stebėjo ne daugiau nei penki procentai apklaustųjų, o žinojo, apie ką klausiama, mažiau nei trečdalis. Spėjama, kad už jį prezidento rinkimuose galėtų balsuoti maždaug keturi penki procentai rinkėjų. Žinoma, jo populiarumas ir žinomumas Maskvoje, kur Navalnas šiuo metu dalyvauja mero rinkimuose yra gerokai didesnis. Komentatoriai dažniausiai sutinka, kad jo pagrindiniai rėmėjai yra didžiųjų miestų besiformuojanti ir kol kas nedidelė vidurinioji klasė. Tačiau kol kas tenka pripažinti, kad A.Navalnas dar neperžengė tos ribos, po kurios jis galėtų būti laikomas rimta politine jėga, galinčia mesti iššūkį dabartiniam isteblišmentui.

Ar matote šiame opozicijos judėjime ir konkrečiai A. Navalno asmenyje potencialą vieną dieną mesti iššūkį Kremliui?

A. Navalnas iš tiesų šiuo metu atrodo tampa vis ryškesniu Rusijos opozicijos veidu. Potencialo pritraukti didesnes mases šis opozicionierius  turi. Charizmatiškas, atkaklus, energingas, kovojantis su korupcija, pasisakantis prieš imigrantus, ypač iš Kaukazo ir Centrinės Azijos, raginantis mažinti valstybės aparatą – šis rinkinys, leidžiantis Navalną vadinti dešiniuoju populistu, yra patrauklus ir suprantamas Rusijos sąlygomis. Šalyje, kur apie šešiasdešimt procentų linkę pritarti šūkiui "Rusija rusams". Šis opozicionierius neslepia savo ambicijų, yra pasakęs, kad sieks kandidatuoti prezidento rinkimuose, dabar meta iššūkį administracijos atstovui Maskvoje ir vis drąsiau ir drąsiau atakuoja pilkuosius Rusijos valstybės kardinolus, kalbėdamas apie jų nemoralumą, godumą ir veidmainystę.

Kiek šiam jo potencialui bus leista išsiplėtoti, deja, labai smarkiai priklausys  nuo dabartinės Rusijos valdžios ir jos pasiryžimo su juo susitvarkyti laipsnio. O susidorojusi ji jau yra ne su vienu, bandžiusiu mesti jai iššūkį.

Kodėl A. Navalnas buvo sulaikytas, juk taip Kremlius tik padidino šio opozicijos veikėjo populiarumą?

A.Navalno teismo procesas buvo ir yra politinis. Ir tiesą sakant nieko neturėjo nustebinti nei tai, kad jis buvo pripažintas kaltu, nei tai, kad buvo nuspręsta skirti bausmę įkalinant jį. Reikia taip pat suvokti, kad jo byla nėra vienintelė, kai bandoma susidoroti su opozicija, ryškiai pradėjusia formuotis po 2011 m. Dūmos rinkimų ir juos lydėjusių protestų. Po prezidento rinkimų V.Putino sistema labai aiškiai parodė, kad ji nėra linkusi toleruoti masinių protestų toliau ir yra aiškiai pasiryžusi taikyti griežtas sankcijas.

Šiuo metu Navalnas nėra sulaikytas ir dalyvauja Maskvos mero rinkimuose. Rinkimuose, kurių jis tikrai negali laimėti, tačiau kuriems jis yra reikalingas. Visų pirma tam, kad legitimizuotų tikėtiną naująjį merą – Sergėjų Sobianiną. Tačiau ar jie padės pačiam Navalnui išvengti kalėjimo ir užmaršties? Tai gali pasakyti tik laikas ir V.Putinas.

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