Aleksejus Kononovicius

Senior researcher at Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy (Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University). Research interests: stochastic and agent-based modeling, complex systems, Econophysics, Sociophysics, Statistical Physics and Data Science. Contributor to Physics of Risk science blog.

Web of Science papers

  1. A. Kononovicius, R. Astrauskas, M. Radavičius, F. Ivanauskas. Delayed interactions in the noisy voter model through the periodic polling mechanism. (under review). arXiv:2403.10277 [physics.soc-ph].
  2. A. Kononovicius, B. Kaulakys. 1/f noise in semiconductors arising from the heterogeneous detrapping process of individual charge carriers. (under review). arXiv:2306.07009 [math.PR].
  3. A. Kononovicius, J. Kvedaravicius. Scaling of variability measures in hierarchical demographic data. 2023 International Conference on Noise and Fluctuations (ICNF). Grenoble, France, 2023. doi: 10.1109/icnf57520.2023.10472763. arXiv:2403.20259 [physics.soc-ph].
  4. A. Kononovicius, B. Kaulakys. Immediate recapture in the trapping-detrapping process of a single charge carrier. 2023 International Conference on Noise and Fluctuations (ICNF). Grenoble, France, 2023. doi: 10.1109/icnf57520.2023.10472770. arXiv:2403.20257 [cond-mat.stat-mech].
  5. A. Kononovicius, B. Kaulakys. 1/f noise from the sequence of nonoverlapping rectangular pulses. Physical Review E 107: 034117 (2023). doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.107.034117. arXiv:2210.11792 [cond-mat.stat-mech].
  6. R. Kazakevičius, A. Kononovicius. Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in the scaled voter model. Physical Review E 107: 024106 (2023). doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.107.024106. arXiv:2301.08088 [cond-mat.stat-mech].
  7. A. Kononovicius, R. Kazakevičius, B. Kaulakys. Resemblance of the power-law scaling behavior of a non-Markovian and nonlinear point processes. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 162: 112508 (2022). doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112508. arXiv:2205.07563 [cond-mat.stat-mech].
  8. M. Levene, A. Kononovicius. Empirical Survival Jensen-Shannon Divergence as a Goodness-of-Fit Measure for Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Curve Fitting. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation 50: 3751-3767 (2021). doi: 10.1080/03610918.2019.1630435. arXiv:1809.11052 [stat.ME].
  9. R. Kazakevičius, A. Kononovicius, B. Kaulakys, V. Gontis. Understanding the nature of the long-range memory phenomenon in socio-economic systems. Entropy 23: 1125 (2021). doi: 10.3390/e23091125. arXiv:2108.02506 [physics.soc-ph].
  10. R. Kazakevičius, A. Kononovicius. Anomalous diffusion in nonlinear transformations of the noisy voter model. Physical Review E 103: 032154 (2021). doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.103.032154. arXiv:2011.02927 [cond-mat.stat-mech].
  11. A. Kononovicius. Supportive interactions in the noisy voter model. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 143: 110627 (2021). doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110627. arXiv:2001.11066 [physics.soc-ph].
  12. A. Kononovicius. Noisy voter model for the anomalous diffusion of parliamentary presence. Journal of Statistical Mechanics 2020: 063405 (2020). doi: 10.1088/1742-5468/ab8c39. arXiv:2001.01479 [physics.soc-ph].
  13. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Bessel-like birth-death process. Physica A 540: 123119 (2020). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123119. arXiv:1904.13064 [physics.soc-ph].
  14. A. Kononovicius. Compartmental voter model. Journal of Statistical Mechanics 2019: 103402 (2019). doi: 10.1088/1742-5468/ab409b. arXiv: 1906.01842 [physics.soc-ph].
  15. A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. Journal of Statistical Mechanics 2019: 073402 (2019). doi: 10.1088/1742-5468/ab2709. arXiv: 1902.00924 [q-fin.ST].
  16. A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Order book model with herding behavior exhibiting long-range memory. Physica A 525: 171-191 (2019). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.03.059. arXiv: 1809.02772 [q-fin.ST].
  17. A. Kononovicius. Illusion of persistence in NBA 1995-2018 regular season data. Physica A 520: 250-256 (2019). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.01.039. arXiv: 1810.03383 [physics.soc-ph].
  18. A. Kononovicius. Modeling of the parties' vote share distributions. Acta Physica Polonica A 133 (6): 1450 (2018). doi: 10.12693/APhysPolA.133.1450. arXiv: 1709.07655 [physics.soc-ph].
  19. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. The consentaneous model of the financial markets exhibiting spurious nature of long-range memory. Physica A 505: 1075-1083 (2018). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.04.053. arXiv:1712.05121 [q-fin.ST].
  20. A. Kononovicius. Empirical analysis and agent-based modeling of Lithuanian parliamentary elections. Complexity 2017: 7354642 (2017). doi: 10.1155/2017/7354642. arXiv: 1704.02101 [physics.soc-ph].
  21. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Spurious memory in non-equilibrium stochastic models of imitative behavior. Entropy 19 (8): 387 (2017). doi: 10.3390/e19080387. arXiv: 1707.09801 [q-fin.ST].
  22. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Burst and inter-burst duration statistics as empirical test of long-range memory in the financial markets. Physica A 483: 266-272 (2017). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.163. arXiv: 1701.01255 [q-fin.ST].
  23. V. Gontis, S. Havlin, A. Kononovicius, B. Podobnik, H.E. Stanley. Stochastic model of financial markets reproducing scaling and memory in volatility return intervals. Physica A 462: 1091-1102 (2016). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.06.143. arXiv: 1507.05203 [q-fin.GN].
  24. A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Stochastic dynamics of N correlated binary variables and non-extensive statistical mechanics. Physics Letters A 380: 1582-1588 (2016). doi: 10.1016/j.physleta.2016.03.006. arXiv: 1601.06968 [cond-mat.stat-mech].
  25. A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Nonlinear GARCH model and 1/f noise. Physica A 427: 74-81 (2015). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.040. arXiv: 1412.6244 [q-fin.ST].
  26. A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Herding interactions as an opportunity to prevent extreme events in financial markets. European Physical Journal B 88 (7): 189 (2015). doi: 10.1140/epjb/e2015-60160-0. arXiv: 1409.8024 [q-fin.ST].
  27. A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Continuous transition from the extensive to the non-extensive statistics in an agent-based herding model. European Physics Journal B 87 (8): 169 (2014). doi: 10.1140/epjb/e2014-50349-0. arXiv: 1404.0856 [physics.soc-ph].
  28. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets. PLoS ONE 9 (7): e102201 (2014). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102201. arXiv: 1403.1574 [q-fin.ST].
  29. A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Control of the socio-economic systems using herding interactions. Physica A 405: 80-84 (2014). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.03.003. arXiv: 1309.6105 [physics.soc-ph].
  30. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Fluctuation analysis of the three agent groups herding model. 2013 International Conference on Noise and Fluctuations (ICNF). Montpeiler, France, 2013. doi: 10.1109/ICNF.2013.6578896. arXiv: 1305.5958 [q-fin.ST].
  31. A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Three state herding model of the financial markets. EPL 101: 28001 (2013). doi: 10.1209/0295-5075/101/28001. arXiv: 1210.1838 [q-fin.ST].
  32. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, S. Reimann. The class of nonlinear stochastic models as a background for the bursty behavior in financial markets. Advances in Complex Systems 15 (supp01): 1250071 (2012). doi: 10.1142/S0219525912500713. arXiv: 1201.3083 [q-fin.ST].
  33. A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory. Physica A 391: 1309-1314 (2012). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.08.061. arXiv: 1106.2685 [q-fin.ST].
  34. V. Daniunas, V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Agent-based versus macroscopic modeling of competition and business processes in economics. ICCGI 2011, The Sixth International Multi-Conference on Computing in the Global Information Technology, pp. 84-88. Luxembourg, 2011. The paper received IARIA Best Paper Award. arXiv: 1104.2895 [physics.soc-ph].
  35. V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius. A long-range memory stochastic model of the return in financial markets. Physica A 389 (1): 100-106 (2010). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.09.011. arXiv: 0901.0903 [q-fin.ST].

Other peer-reviewed papers

  1. A. Kononovicius, V. Daniunas. Agent-based and macroscopic modeling of the complex socio-economic systems. Social Technologies 3: 85-103 (2013). doi: 10.13165/ST-13-3-1-06. arXiv: 1303.3693 [physics.soc-ph].
  2. A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, V. Daniunas. Agent-based Versus Macroscopic Modeling of Competition and Business Processes in Economics and Finance. International Journal On Advances in Intelligent Systems 5: 111-126 (2012). arXiv: 1202.3533 [q-fin.GN].
  3. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Nonlinear Stochastic Model of Return matching to the data of New York and Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Dynamics of Socio-Economic Systems 2 (1): 101-109 (2011). arXiv: 1003.5356 [q-fin.ST].
  4. V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius. A Non-linear Stochastic Model of Return in Financial Markets. In: Stochastic Control, ed. C. Myers. InTech, 2010. doi: 10.5772/9748.


  1. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Short research review: Applications of statistical physics investigating financial and other social systems. arXiv:2403.10899 [physics.soc-ph].
  2. A. Kononovicius. Kodėl jūsų draugai turi vidutiniškai daugiau draugų nei jūs?, 2016 gruodis.
  3. A. Kononovicius. Žaislinis modelis, padedantis suprasti ekonomiką: kaip susiję grobis, plėšrūnai ir verslo ciklai., 2016 spalis.
  4. A. Kononovicius. Idealios dujos ir neidealūs žmonės: kokie demonai lemia dujų elgesį ir turtinę nelygybę., 2016 rugpjūtis.
  5. A. Kononovicius. Kaip piratavimas padeda programinės įrangos kūrėjams?, 2016 liepa.
  6. A. Kononovicius. Įtikinėjimo menas: kaip mažumos formuoja visuomenės nuomonę., 2016 biržėlis.
  7. A. Kononovicius. Tarptautinis valiutos fondas skelbia, kad neoliberalizmas yra pervertintas. Mokslo Lietuva portalas, 2016 birželis.
  8. A. Kononovicius. Bandos imunitetas: skie­pai prieš epi­de­mi­jas (sumodeliuok pats)., 2016 gegužė.
  9. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Market price - is it economic or sociological concept? Physics of Risk, July 2014.
  10. A. Kononovicius. Bitkoinas, laisva rinka ir nelygybė. Mokslo Lietuva portalas, 2014 vasaris.
  11. A. Kononovicius. Socialism and capitalism in the kinetic exchange models. Physics of Risk, December 2013.
  12. A. Kononovicius. Statistical physics - a key to understanding of the social and economic complexity. / / / Physics of Risk, 2013 / 2014. Won the scientific jury prize at scientific writing contest.
  13. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, K. Acus. Baltic countries should continue EU leadership in the sustained economic growth. Physics of Risk, September 2013.
  14. A. Kononovicius, I. Kazakevicius. Impact of the controlled agents on the dynamics of the Kirman model. Physics of Risk, September 2013.
  15. V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. The phenomenon of economic growth of Baltic states. Physics of Risk, March 2013.
  16. M. Rudzevičiūtė. Neišmanote fizikos? Kyla rizika įmonei?, 2013. Interview given by A. Kononovicius. Download.
  17. A. Kononovicius. What can the Bass diffusion model tell us about piracy? Physics of Risk, March 2012.
  18. A. Kononovicius. Prekybos Vilniaus vertybinių popierių biržoje ir Niujorko vertybinių popierių biržoje palyginimas. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2009. Finalist of NASDAQ OMX Vilnius organized contest for best work by university student.