Apie protestus Rusijoje

Po ilgesnės pertraukos parašiau viešą komentarą. Kaip, matyt, ir dauguma būsimų – apie Rusiją. Šįkart po gruodžio 9 d. protestų. Tekstas iš karto po žvaigždutėmis

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Visi daugmaž abejingai laukėme gruodžio 4 d. Dūmos rinkimų Rusijoje – kas gi čia tokio gali įvykti? Po savaitės abejingumas ir įsivaizdavimas, kad suvokiame, kas vyksta Rusijoje, dingo. Į protesto mitingą praėjusį šeštadienį, gruodžio 10 d., atėjo daug daugiau žmonių nei tikėtasi. Pilietinė visuomenė nubudo? Rėžimui kyla pavojus? Nuo skepticizmo iki optimistinės euforijos gali būti mažiau nei vienas žingsnis.

Iš tiesų džiūgauti yra dėl ko. Protestuotojai atėjo išreikšti savo nepasitenkinimą ir dėl rinkimų pažeidimų, ir dėl politinio rėžimo. Tiesa, įdomiausia čia tai, jog tai nėra pirmas kartas, kai galima įtarti rinkimus nebuvus švariais. Kodėl sujusta dabar? Taip, ekonominės padėties prastėjimas gali būti viena iš priežasčių. Tačiau visgi panašu, jog esminė priežastis – režimas pasirodė ne toks stiprus ir įtaigus, kaip galvota. Išėjusi šimtatūkstantinė minia tą patvirtino.

Atrodo, kad Rusijoje atsiranda vis daugiau žmonių, kuriems rūpi, kas vyksta jų šalyje. Tai žmonės, gyvenantys didžiuosiuose miestuose ir aktyviai besinaudojantys šiuolaikinėmis internetinėmis technologijomis. Iš tiesų mobilizacinė socialinių tinklų galia pasirodė nelauktai stipri: ten kur televizija tiekia tik vieno tipo informaciją, egzistuoja stipri ir gyvybinga alternatyvi informacinė erdvė. Ji sunkiai kontroliuojama ir, kaip pasirodo, daro poveikį. Neabejotinai, dar reikia laiko suvokti, kas per reiškinys buvo šeštadieniniai protestai ir ką jie sako apie Rusijos visuomenę. Bet aišku, kad jie pramankštino tirpti pradėjusius pilietiškumo raumenis.

Kita vertus, besidžiaugiant Rusijos gyventojų sujudimu, nevertėtų skubėti skelbti atėjus „pavasarį“ Rusijoje.

Pirma, Vieningoji Rusija, gavusi 50 proc. balsų, lieka dominuojanti politinė jėga šalyje. Visa kita atiteko lojaliajai, sukalbamai ir nesikandžiojančiai opozicijai: komunistams (19 proc.), Teisingajai Rusijai (13 proc.) ir beveik 12 proc. surinkusiems Vladimiro Žirinovskio liberaldemokratams. Vienintelė liberalesnė partija, kuriai leista dalyvauti rinkimuose, Jabloko, neįveikė 7 proc. rinkiminio barjero.

Taip, Konstituciją keičianti dviejų trečdalių dauguma prarasta, bet rinkimų rezultatai partijos dominavimui ir įtakai grėsmės nekelia. Nedingo ir visuotinė parama televizijoje, ir regioninių elito grupių palaikymas, ir administraciniai resursai kovojant su tikraisiais politiniais oponentais.

Tiesa, reikia pripažinti, kad mažesnis nei tikėtasi balsų skaičius dominuojančiai jėgai, privertė pakeisti nuomonę apie Vladimiro Putino ir jo partijos perspektyvas ir suteikė paskatų susimąstyti netgi apie rėžimo ateitį. Pseudodemokratiniam, hibridiniam rėžimui, legitimizuojančiam save tuo, jog jį palaiko didžioji dalis gyventojų, žinutė, jog sistema veikia kažkaip kitaip nei tikėtasi, yra pavojinga ir turėtų versti sunerimti bei gerai apsvarstyti tolesnius žingsnius.

Antra, Vladimiras Putinas vis tiek (greičiausiai) taps Rusijos prezidentu. Tik dabar jam teks gerokai pamąstyti, kaip jis tai norės padaryti. Minties, kad populiarumo ir turimos reputacijos užteks rinkiminei kampanijai, teks atsisakyti.
Atrodo, kad didžioji klaida buvo padaryta rugsėjį. Tuomet paskelbus, jog Putinas bus keliamas kandidatu prezidento rinkimuose realiai buvo pranešta apie valdžios perdavimą, įvyksiantį kitų metų kovą. Tada buvo nusiųstas pranešimas – „niekas nepasikeis“. Reakcijų į tai gali būti įvairių: pradedant ta, kurios baimintasi labiausiai – pasyvumu ir nėjimu į rinkimus, ir baigiant balsavimu „prieš“, net nesvarbu, už ką balsuojama. Kaip kad atsitiko šių rinkimų atveju.

Dėl to prezidento rinkimams bus ruošiamasi jau daug rimčiau. Didžiausias Putino pranašumas – apčiuopiamos vieningos alternatyvos nebuvimas ir dominavimas viešojoje erdvėje. Jo populiarumas vis dar viršija 50 procentų – to galėtų pavydėti bet kokios Europos valstybės vadovas. Jo laukiantis didžiausias iššūkis – įrodyti, kad Prezidento rinkimai vyks sąžiningai. O tai nebus taip lengva turint mintyje ne tik dominuojančią nuostatą ir pačioje Rusijoje, ir užsienyje, jog rinkimai nevyksta švariai, bet ir kai kurių regioninių lyderių itin didelį stropumą (puikus pavyzdys yra Čečėnija su savo 99 proc. palaikymu).
Dabar klausimas – o kas toliau?

Galima juokauti, jog toliau artėja Rusijos valdžios išsigelbėjimas – šventės. Rimčiau tariant protestuotojų laukia sunkiausias išbandymas – išlaikyti dėmesį ir rasti būdų formuluoti aiškius reikalavimus, nepavirstant amorfiška ir nevaldoma protestuojančia minia, siekiančia tiesiog nuversti valdžią. Garsiajam Rusijos valdžios tandemui teks kitoks iššūkis – parodyti, ką jie gali padaryti politinės krizės sąlygomis. Ir vieni, ir kiti turi ko pasimokyti iš pastarosios savaitės.

Revoliucinio „pavasario“ metafora yra pavojinga, nes mums nurodo mąstyti tam tikru būdu, įsivaizduojant masę nepatenkintų žmonių, kurie atkakliais protestais ir naujomis technologijomis galų gale nuverčia valdžią. Tikrai nesiūlyčiau svajoti apie tokią revoliuciją Rusijoje. To niekam nereikia.

Kita vertus, šios dienos parodė, jog už tariamos apatijos ir abejingumo, yra ir nepasitenkinimo, ir nerimo, ir pykčio. Kiekvienai valdžiai sveika tai pajusti. Kokias išvadas ji pasidarys, pradės ryškėti artėjant tikram pavasariui – prezidento rinkimai kovą, atrodo, bus gerokai didesnis iššūkis Putinui ir įdomesnis procesas mums nei bet kas galėjo tikėtis visai neseniai.

Pirmą kartą pasirodė Delfi.lt, 2011 m. gruodžio 14 d, Kodėl „pavasaris“ Rusijoje dar neatėjo, bet džiūgauti yra dėl ko

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