Introduction: My name is Aleksejus Kononovicius (lt. Kononovičius). I hold PhD in Physics and currently work as a researcher at Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy (Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University). Besides conducting research in Econophysics and Sociophysics, which involves stochastic and agent-based modeling as well as a bit of Data Science, I also teach "Numerical methods I". In spare time, when not reading, board gaming, cycling or skying, I blog about my and related research on Physics of Risk.
Recent papers:
Anomalous diffusion in nonlinear transformations of the noisy voter model Noisy voter models are well known in the interdisciplinary community, yet they haven't been studied from the perspective of the anomalous diffusion. In this paper we have considered how the impact of nonlinear transformations of space and time impact the diffusive behavior of the noisy voter model.
Supportive interactions in the noisy voter model. Typically voter models include various implementations of recruitment. Yet, as theories in social sciences predict, there is another type of herding interaction. In real life people also predict and reinforce beliefs held by their peers. In this paper we have examined implications of these supportive interactions on the phenomenology of the noisy voter model. The observed phenomenology is quite similar to the aging and freezing phenomena observed in magnetic materials.
Compartmental voter model. Most models in Sociophysics are observed over time, while the empirical data is quite often spatial. In this paper I have proposed a new kind of voter model, which evolves both in space and time. The proposed model is able to reproduce electoral and census data.
M. Levene, A. Kononovicius. Empirical Survival Jensen-Shannon Divergence as a Goodness-of-Fit Measure for Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Curve Fitting. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation. doi: 10.1080/03610918.2019.1630435. arXiv:1809.11052 [stat.ME].
V. Gontis, S. Havlin, A. Kononovicius, B. Podobnik, H.E. Stanley. Stochastic model of financial markets reproducing scaling and memory in volatility return intervals. Physica A 462: 1091-1102 (2016). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.06.143. arXiv: 1507.05203 [q-fin.GN].
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Fluctuation analysis of the three agent groups herding model. Noise and Fluctuations (ICNF), 2013 22nd International Conference on. Montpeiler, France, 2013. doi: 10.1109/ICNF.2013.6578896. arXiv: 1305.5958 [q-fin.ST].
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, S. Reimann. The class of nonlinear stochastic models as a background for the bursty behavior in financial markets. Advances in Complex Systems 15 (supp01): 1250071 (2012). doi: 10.1142/S0219525912500713. arXiv: 1201.3083 [q-fin.ST].
V. Daniunas, V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Agent-based versus macroscopic modeling of competition and business processes in economics. ICCGI 2011, The Sixth International Multi-Conference on Computing in the Global Information Technology, pp. 84-88. Luxembourg, 2011. The paper received IARIA Best Paper Award. thinkmind: iccgi_2011_4_40_10188. arXiv: 1104.2895 [physics.soc-ph].
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, V. Daniunas. Agent-based Versus Macroscopic Modeling of Competition and Business Processes in Economics and Finance. International Journal On Advances in Intelligent Systems 5 (1-2): 111-126 (2012). thinkmind: intsys_v5_n12_2012_9. arXiv: 1202.3533 [q-fin.GN].
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Nonlinear Stochastic Model of Return matching to the data of New York and Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Dynamics of Socio-Economic Systems 2 (1): 101-109 (2011). arXiv: 1003.5356 [q-fin.ST].
V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius. A Non-linear Stochastic Model of Return in Financial Markets. In: Stochastic Control, ed. C. Myers. InTech, 2010. doi: 10.5772/9748.
A. Kononovicius. Prekybos Vilniaus vertybinių popierių biržoje ir Niujorko vertybinių popierių biržoje palyginimas. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2009. Darbas pateko į NASDAQ OMX Vilnius studentų mokslinių darbų konkurso finalą.
A. Kononovicius. Voter model for electoral and census data. International EURO Mini Conference on Modelling and Simulation of Social-Behavioural Phenomena in Creative Societies (MSBC-2019), p. 31. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Compartmental voter model. 10th Polish Symposium on Physics in Economy and Social Sciences (FENS 2019). Otwock--Swierk, Poland, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Order book model with herd behavior and long-range memory. DPG Spring Meeting 2019, SOE 5.2. Regensburg, Germany, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Intrinsic and spurious long-range memory in financial markets and ABMs through the lense of first passage times. DPG Spring Meeting 2018, SOE 10.2. Berlin, Germany, 2018. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Modeling of Lithuanian parliamentary elections using ABM. 13th Econophysics Colloquium & 9th Polish Symposium on Physics in Economy and Social Sciences, p. 21. Warsaw, Poland, 2017. Download.
A. Kononovicius, A. Ramonaite. Lietuvos Respublikos Seimo rinkimų rezultatų aiškinimas agentų modeliu. Lietuvos socialinių mokslų forumas 2016. Molėtų astronomijos observatorija, Lietuva, 2016. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas. Complexity and statistical physics of herding behavior. Naujametė fizikos konferencija, p. 11. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2015. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Controlling the Dynamics of Herding Dominant Financial Market. International Conference on Statistical Physics, p. 80. Rhodes, Greece, 2014. Download.
A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Non-extensive and extensive statistics in the agent-based herding model. Open Readings 2014, p. 52. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2014. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Sudėtingų socialinių vyksmų aiškinimas siejant jų mikroskopinius ir makroskopinius aprašymus. Fizinių ir technologijos mokslų tarpdalykiniai tyrimai (4-oji jaunųjų mokslininkų konferencija): Fizinių mokslų sekcija, pp. 11-13. Lietuvos mokslų akademija, Vilnius, Lietuva, 2014. Note: tėzės išleistos elektroniniu pavidalu (CD). Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Mikroskopinis ir makroskopinis sudėtingų sistemų modeliavimas. 40-oji Lietuvos nacionalinė fizikos konferencija: Programa ir pranešimų tezės, p. 28. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2013. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Generalizing binary choice agent-based herding model. WEHIA 2013: Conference Program, p. 8. Reykjavik, Iceland, 2013. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Bursting behavior of the non-linear stochastic models applicable to the financial markets. Open Readings 2013, p. 57. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2013. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Daniunas. Agent-based and macroscopic modeling of the complex socio-economic systems. International Scientific Conference for Young Researchers on Social Transformations in Contemporary Society 2013. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2013. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, B. Kaulakys. Herding behavior of agents as a background of financial fluctuations. 25th European Conference on Operational Research, p. 75. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2012. Download.
B. Kaulakys, V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Microscopic herding model leading to long-range processes and 1/f noise with application to absolute return in financial markets. Verhandlungen DPG (VI) 47, p. 403. Berlin, Germany, 2012. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Mikroskopinis stochastinių modelių aiškinimas. 39-oji Lietuvos nacionalinė fizikos konferencija: Programa ir pranešimų tezės, p. 34. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2011. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Stochastic model of return matching to the data of financial markets with differing liquidity. Open Readings 2010. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2010. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas. Grąžos statistinių savybių, stebimų finansų rinkoje, modeliavimas stochastiniu modeliu su ilga atmintimi. Laisvieji skaitymai 2009. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2009. Download.
Posters presented
A. Kononovicius. Correspondence between spatial and classical voter model. 43-oji Lietuvos nacionalinė fizikos konferencija: Programa ir pranešimų tezės, p. 161. Kaunas, Lietuva, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Statistical patterns of Lithuanian municipality elections. DPG Spring Meeting 2019, SOE 12.1. Regensburg, Germany, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Statistical patterns of Lithuanian parliamentary elections. DPG Spring Meeting 2018, SOE 7.7. Berlin, Germany, 2018. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Pliūpsnių statistika ir netikra ilga atmintis Forex duomenyse. 42-oji Lietuvos nacionalinė fizikos konferencija: Programa ir pranešimų tezės, p. 123. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2017. doi: 10.15388/proceedings/LNFK.42. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Universalios Seimo rinkimų statistinės savybės ir jų modeliavimas. 42-oji Lietuvos nacionalinė fizikos konferencija: Programa ir pranešimų tezės, p. 122. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2017. doi: 10.15388/proceedings/LNFK.42. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Pikų statistika minučių, dienų ir mėnesių laiko skalėse. 41-oji Lietuvos nacionalinė fizikos konferencija: Programa ir pranešimų tezės, p. 355. Vilnius, Lietuva, 2015. doi: 10.15388/proceedings/LNFK.410. Download.
A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Long-range memory in non-linear GARCH(1,1) models. Open Readings 2015, p. 247. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2015. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Leadership phenomenon in the agent-based herding model. Open Readings 2014, p. 201. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2014. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Controlling the collective behavior in the agent-based herding model. Verhandlungen DPG (VI) 49, SOE 6.15. Dresden, Germany, 2014. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Inter-burst times of the empirical high-frequency financial market data and non-linear stochastic models. Verhandlungen DPG (VI) 48. Regensburg, Germany, 2013.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, B. Kaulakys. Bursting dynamics of the high-frequency empirical return and non-linear stochastic model. COST Action MP0801 Annual Meeting 2012, p. 31. Galway, Ireland, 2012. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, B. Kaulakys. Bursting behavior of non-linear stochastic model and empirical high-frequency return. Verhandlungen DPG (VI) 47, p. 401. Berlin, Germany, 2012. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis, B. Kaulakys. Agent based reasoning of the nonlinear stochastic models. Verhandlungen DPG (VI) 46, p. 502. Dresden, Germany, 2011. Download.
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Double stochastic model of return in the financial markets. Siena, Italy, 2010. Note: poster presentation at international school on "Multidisciplinary Approaches to Economic and Social Complex Systems", presenter A. Kononovicius. Download.
A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Empirical analysis of Vilnius stock exchange absolute return time series. 2nd Annual Meeting COST Action MP0801: Physics of Competition and Conflicts. Sunny Beach, Bulgaria, 2010. Download.
As a co-author
A. Ramonaitė, A. Kononovicius. Nuo fizikos prie sociologijos: kompiuterinis dinaminių socialinių procesų modeliavimas. X-oji nacionalinė Lietuvos sociologų draugijos konferencija. Klaipėda, Lietuva, 2018.
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Financial herding of three agent groups under the impact of exogenous noise. International Conference on Statistical Physics, pp. 54-55. Rhodes, Greece, 2014.
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. The Class of Nonlinear Stochastic Equations as a Background Modeling Financial Systems. ETH Zurich Latsis Symposium 2012 Satellite Workshop, p. 37. ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 2012. http://web.sg.ethz.ch/Latsis_2012/.
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, B. Kaulakys. Agent-based Versus Macroscopic Modeling of Competition and Business Processes in Economics and Finance. COST Action MP0801 Annual Meeting 2012, p. 19. Galway, Ireland, 2012.
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius. Agent-based versus macroscopic modeling of competition and business processes in economics and finance. Meeting of Workgroup 3 of COST Action MP0801. Jerusalem, Izrael, 2012.
P. Purlys, A. Kononovicius, V. Gontis. Various ways of introducing herding behavior into the agent based models of complex systems. Open Readings 2012, p. 150. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2012. Download.
B. Kaulakys, M. Alaburda, V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, J. Ruseckas. Modeling by the nonlinear stochastic differential equation of the power-law distribution of extreme events in the financial systems. 6th International Conference on Unsolved Problems on Noise. Kolkata, India, 2012.
V. Gontis, A. Kononovicius, B. Kaulakys. Minimal agent based models as a microscopic reasoning of nonlinear stochastic models. 3rd Annual Meeting COST Action MP0801: Physics of Competition and Conflicts. Eindhoven, Holland, 2011.
V. Gontis, B. Kaulakys, A. Kononovicius. Scaled nonlinear stochastic model of return versus empirical data. 2nd Annual Meeting COST Action MP0801: Physics of Competition and Conflicts. Sunny Beach, Bulgaria, 2010.
V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius, M. Alaburda, B. Kaulakys. Nonextensive statistics with application to financial processes from nonlinear stochastic differential equations. Verhandlungen DPG Spring Meeting. Regensburg, Germany, 2010.
V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius. Long range memory stochastic model of return in financial markets. Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis 7. Tokyo, Japan, 2009.
V. Gontis, J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius. Stochastic modeling of trading activity and volatility in financial markets. 4th International Conference on News, Expectations and Trends in Statistical Physics. Crete, Greece, 2008.
V. Gontis, B. Kaulakys, J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius. Comparative statistics of trading activity and word occurrences. 4th Annual Meeting COST Action P10: Physics of Risk. Palermo, Italy, 2007.
Other
A. Kononovicius. Non-extensive voter model for socio-economic phenomena. Seminar @ Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Erdvinis rinkėjo modelis. KFSSG seminaras, VU TFAI, Vilnius, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Tolydūs procesai, diskretūs procesai ir burbulų statistika. KFSSG seminaras, VU TFAI, Vilnius, 2019. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Žvilgsnis į nuomonių dinamiką per LRS rinkimų prizmę. KFSSG seminaras, VU TFAI, Vilnius, 2018. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Sąveikaujančių agentų modeliai. Seminaras BPTI, Vilnius, 2016. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Ekonofizikos (Rizikos fizikos) darbai daromi VU TFAI. Seminaras VU TFAI doktorantams, 2014. Download.
J. Ruseckas, A. Kononovicius. Continuous transition from the extensive to the non-extensive statistics in a simple model. Seminar @ Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2014. Note: as a co-author.
A. Kononovicius. Įvadas į tinklų modeliavimą. VSTS seminaras, Vilnius, 2014. Download.
A. Kononovicius. Kinetiniai socio-ekonominių sistemų modeliai. VSTS seminaras, Vilnius, 2013. Download.
Young scientist scholarship "Effect of non-linearity on long-range memory properties of fractional Gaussian noise" (2020; duration: 12 months) awarded by Lithuanian Academy of Sciences.
2017 Spring. Bachelor thesis supervisor. Student: Lukas Bagdonavičius (Vilnius UniversityFaculty of Physics, fourth year). Topic: "Power spectrum analysis of a point process driven by the fractional Gaussian noise".
2017 Spring. Bachelor thesis supervisor. Student: Jonas Tupčiauskas (Vilnius UniversityFaculty of Physics, fourth year). Topic: "Diffusion model of Sąjūdis growth".
2016 Autumn. Term paper supervisor. Student: Jonas Tupčiauskas (Vilnius UniversityFaculty of Physics, fourth year). Topic: "Non-linear models of socio-economic systems".
2016 Autumn. Internship co-supervisor (together with prof. Ainė Ramonaitė, dr. Julius Ruseckas and dr. Tomas Žalandauskas). Students: Brigita Čelkytė, Goda Damaševičiūtė, Milda Venckutė, Ugnė Šiurienė (Vilnius University, various faculties). Topic: "Modeling of the Sajudis growth by using interacting agent-based model" (lt. "Sąjūdžio plėtros modeliavimas naudojant matematinį sąveikaujančių agentų modelį"). Internship was organized by Baltic Institute of Advanced Technology and supported by ESO.
2011 Spring. Seminars of "Theoretical Mechanics" (for second year students; at Vilnius UniversityFaculty of Physics). Course focus: Lagrangian mechanics, Hamiltonian mechanics.